Forest Falling Over The Line

As the clock struck ’95 at Pride Park little over 2 weeks ago, Nottingham Forest were on 70 points and were eleven points better off than the best of those outside the playoff zone with just five games (and a couple of added minutes) remaining of the Championship season.

Ever-since that moment of Joe Worrall madness at Derby, Forest have fallen dramatically off the pace in the playoff race and are without a win in five stretching back to the first weekend in July no thanks to Chris Martin’s injury time goal.

Fulham followed and Forest failed to turn up in what felt like a match with nothing to play for… Suggestions that we’ll meet again later down the line perhaps making the feeling on that particular game irrelevant.

But due to its result, a one-nil loss, Forest needed ‘something’ at Preston and luckily enough they got it. Grabban scored early, Preston levelled, Sabri set up his side then on in not to concede again.

Against Swansea it became equally as important ‘not to lose’ as their rivals were now six points behind the Reds with three to play. An entertaining game perhaps thanks to the away side twice taking the lead and ‘going for broke’ meant Forest had to come out and attack, and thanks to two Sammy Ameobi wonder-strikes it was honours thankfully even, the Reds limping towards the finish line with two to play. Surely a point against either Barnsley or Stoke would be enough to take them into the final four and a pop at Wembley for Premier League status?

Then came yesterday…. Forest needed a point… They still need a point… Much of the talk before the match at Barnsley was fans asking ‘do we go for it, or do we try not to get beat?’… With many blase’ suggesting ‘just go for it’…

I wasn’t particularly with that mindset, I knew Sabri wouldn’t be either, I would have suggested approach the match against the leagues bottom team with caution, but play our ‘usual’ way as we should be good enough to beat them with the quality we’ve got going forward… So when I switched on at ten to three to see Lamouchi had selected FIVE defenders… I immediately knew his intentions for the afternoon were to cling on drastically to what they started with….’F*ck the win’, he probably told his players… “We only need a draw”… It felt from that lineup, on changing something you’ve worked on all season to try something else at the business end of the campaign, was simply destined for failure, and Forest simply got what they deserved in tinkering with a formula that might be often ugly, but is a formula where each and everyone of the players in it knows their roles.

I whatsapped friends and vented my frustration… “Sabri is more negative than the bottom of a battery” I could believe what he had done… But I couldn’t believe what he had done… Had he not learned from Charlton Athletic and the post Leeds performance? ‘FFS he’s even dropped a lad who’s just scored two goals against Swansea and will be buzzing to play’.

To suggest Forest, my team, deserved to lose, to say they got their comeuppance, is a horrible thought to have… But when pain is self-inflicted then who else do you blame?

The worrying thing is that YES Forest are still conceding late goals… The worrying thing is that our form over the last five games is only better than Hull City, Birmingham City, and Derby County’s which I suppose is still quite funny… The worrying thing is that Sabri sets his sides up ‘not to lose’ instead of ‘trying to win’ which might have got us to our best finish points tally for nine years, but in doing so I often feel he keeps the shackles on his players, rather than allowing them to take them off and play more freely.

So Forest now (and still) need the proverbial ‘point’ going into the last match against Stoke and as I look to the table the confidence I had just 24 hours ago… Has soon evaporated to nervousness and hope.

Looking at the table, three teams are fighting for two spots in the playoffs, the ‘bookies’ will have Forest as favourites with Cardiff level on points with the Reds four goals worse off… Swansea just outside needing a win along with a slip up from either above… Football is a funny old game, nine times out of ten it would be impossible for Forest to fail here… But with football, ‘IF’ there’s a chance… There’s always a chance… Which was why it was so important to get this ‘wrapped up’ before the final game.

So what next now for the Reds? Well take Cardiff out of the equation, because if they don’t better Forest’s result it will make no difference at all.. Forest need a point, just that, but if they lose a number of permutations could be possible.

If we say Cardiff win or draw their match at home to the leagues worst team Hull, which I’m sure they will, then Forest need to lose by one goal and Swansea need to win by four against Reading at the Majewski to take ‘our’ spot.

If Forest lose by x2 then Swansea need three, if Forest lose by three goals the Swans need to win by two and so on…

Whilst all the above can be avoided by the Reds securing a ‘point’ who’s to say Sabri won’t shape up ‘nervously’ in order to do this? Who’s to say the Forest players aren’t already thinking along the same mathematical equations as we are right now? All adding to confusion? ‘Do I? Don’t I?’ Stick or Twist….

Forest have put themselves in a horrible position but one they can easily get out of by beating a side that aren’t really that great. Ask anyone at the start of the season if we needed to beat Stoke at home to get into the playoffs or survive I think Reds fans would have took that, just as they would have taken facing Barnsley in their last away match.. But should Forest ‘stumble’ into the final four spots after horrific form post lockdown then who’s to say in a funny old way we could have a clean slate to surprise the lot?

We could easily end up playing West Brom who would have to lift themselves from devastation should they not go up automatically, we could play Brentford who we’ve beaten twice before, we could play Fulham who on recent viewings are ‘nothing special’. But whoever we play we have to be at our best… Something we’ve not been at since minute 95 and a half at Derby.