Pre-Season Shaping Forest Future

It seems like an odd statement – of course pre-season shapes a clubs future, especially in the short-term; experimentation is welcome, room for error allowed, but not without mild scrutiny at least. But Forest are in a different position – for the first time in almost three years, a new head coach is taking pre-season, and while Nuno Espírito Santo is by no means new to this squad, pre-season offers him a fresh start, and a chance to showcase his ideas – perhaps even going back to philosophies of the past. This is a chance for him to shape Forest’s future, and put last seasons wrongs right.

As of the time of writing, Forest have just beaten Neil Harris’ Milwall in a 2-1 victory at Pinatar Arena. A good team goal to start with, and later Hudson-Odoi netting a second – Milwall pulled one back, but it was not enough. While a good performance from Forest, it was largely overshadowed by an overly-aggressive Milwall side. Despite Harris’ compliments & kindness towards Forest in his post-match interview, he was certainly not as gracious in how he lead his side in their defeat. Crunching tackles across the park, leaving Elliot Anderson injured after twisting his knee from a challenge — it is unclear at this stage as to whether he will be fit for the next upcoming games.

So far, positive steps though in the wins against Chesterfield & Milwall, and the draw against Sunderland, with the Spain training camp nearing an end.

What went wrong last season?

Firstly, rather than starting with how I believe pre-season will make up a large part of the solution to Forest’s previous issues, it is probably sensible to discuss what those issues were.

The three biggest issues for me last season were the following:

Set Pieces
Losing points from winning positions
Bravery in the final third

There were undoubtedly more factors than this, and some would argue other factors should be in the three, but I felt from my perspective that these were the three areas Forest fell short, and caused the most frustration in the process.

Talent in the squad is evident – Forest bought some fantastic players, and the factors mentioned had an impact on some of the new signings. Confidence needed couldn’t be found, and for some – such as Sangaré was already suffering with injury & Malaria, as well as participating in AFCON – it was impossible to find consistency, and gain the confidence needed to succeed.

As a team though, Forest – while on many occasions the victim of poor refereeing decisions – didn’t help themselves. Set pieces were a huge part of the failures. The failure to mark, sometimes just a lapse of concentration, and the occasional mistake, it was a nightmare-ish situation for Forest fans to view. It wasn’t much different when watching them with a set-piece in their favour. While Forest weren’t the worst, at 17th place for goals scored, they only managed 7 goals from set-pieces across the 23/24 campaign. However, Forest were the worst for goals conceded (22) in the same season – a tragic statistic that accounted for just under a third of all the clubs goals conceded.

Losing points from winning positions was another frustrating statistic also. At one point, it had been revealed that since the previous season (22/23), Forest has lost 50 points from winning positions. So, split the points lost between the two seasons, and a European push would’ve been possible. Of course, that’s a naïve statement, mistakes & errors happen, but some of the ways points were lost were devastating, and nine times out of ten came due to sitting on a lead. The two best examples of this were Luton at home, and Luton away; Steve Cooper set up defensively with poor substitutions with a 2-0 lead. Forest ended up conceding twice late on, and drawing. Nuno Espírito Santo sat back on a 1-0 lead late on, conceding soon. It was a situation that was mostly avoidable – so substitutions, and game management in general, need to be addressed this season, for sure.

The final mentioned factor I felt needed to be addressed this season was that of Bravery – in particular within the final third. Now Forest did score 11 more times than the previous season (49 compared to 38 [22/23]), but I felt that – as a spectator – Forest attempted to work the ball deep into the box on too many occasions, and missed the opportunity to strike, even from a relatively non-speculative distance. Perhaps just on the edge of the box. Gibbs-White did it against Manchester United, but I felt on so many occasions himself, and his colleagues, could’ve been braver and tried from a small distance. All of them have the ability, and often working the ball deep into the box without a cross is difficult. During Forest’s loss to Everton at Goodison park – which suffered from awful refereeing – I still felt Forest should have tried efforts from a braver distance, with Everton as low and tight at the back as they could be.

These three factors, while a conversation I’d love to have avoided, are ones that cannot be avoided in reality. However, on a much more positive note, they can all be resolved. Forest already have taken/are taking active steps to do so, ahead of their third successive Premier League season.

How will a pre-season resolve these issues?

It is pretty much the reason for it [pre-season] existing: building fitness, recovering after a break, and ironing out some of the pre-existing faults from the season before.

Currently – again, at the time of writing – Forest are in Spain on a training camp featuring intense drills, in intense heat, followed up by fixtures with various clubs from the Championship all the way to Segunda Division (Spanish second division). A variety of opponents — it will be interesting to see Forest’s performance against a side more accustomed to the climate, with perhaps better fitness. They play Elche on Saturday 27th July. Plenty of time for rest and recovery, as well as more time for the introduction of new players – such as Nikola Milenković – alongside the re-introduction of players returning from international tournaments, like Matz Sels, who featured in the EURO’s for Belgium.

Nuno Espírito Santo, while looking forward, is glancing at the past as he looks to take his first, hopefully full season at Nottingham Forest. By “glancing back” I mean looking at “old systems” of his. While in Saudi Arabia, an incredibly successful stint for the former Al-Ittihad head coach, Nuno opted to use a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-2. Having a midfield consisting of Fabinho & Kanté meant the need for a “heavy” midfield in regard to personnel wasn’t a necessity; strong foundations to allow for more attackers, such as then Balon d’or winner, Karim Benzema, who would either play alone or in a partnership. After success in the middle-east, he returned to Europe with Forest with a similar philosophy – typically a 4-2-3-1, encasing, at times, advancing wing-backs, and attackers who cut inside. An element of his philosophy consistent in the 3-4-3 he played at Wolves.

But that 3-4-3 is the basis for my point – while it’s more than possible that Nuno will opt for a return to the 4-2-3-1, a 3-4-3 or other box-midfield formations with the wing-backs & 3 centre-backs is being tested in pre-season, and the players are acclimatising to the system, its demands, and the ways in which it can quickly devastate an opponent.

Against Chesterfield – albeit a team not of the same standard in regard to league – Forest showcased the importance of the system using wing-backs. A strong midfield of Anderson, Sangaré & Dominguez at various stages, anchoring the centre of the park, supplying the advancing wing-backs with passes. One of those fell to the high-up Neco Williams, who created the first chance after seven minutes – already proving how the system can lead to quick attacks, and quick goals. Of course, with the advancing wing-backs does come heavy responsibility: recovery of positions, and reading the game’s potential for an opposition for a counter-attack is crucial, and something no doubt Nuno & his staff will stress behind the scenes in Spain, and beyond. Hopefully through this attacking mindset while transfer into the Premier League season, not ‘sitting back’ when winning, and potentially resolving the issue of losing points from winning positions, or at least minimise the issue.

As for set-pieces, you’d hope the signing of Carlos Miguel, 6ft 8in, and Nikola Milenković, 6ft 5in”, would certainly aid the fight against poor set-piece defending. Both of those mentioned were revered at their previous clubs for their aerial ability, and no doubt that should transcribe to their ability to defend a set-piece. Furthermore, with pre-season allows for practice; Scoring is just as important as defending. So often set-pieces are a final opportunity for a side to grasp points, or take a draw, and Forest should see the advantage of that, and put more emphasis on training that. No doubt this is a reality though – Nuno opted to use his own first team staff for set-piece training, with Simon Rusk removed from the picture; Rusk since joined Southampton, after leaving his confusing & borderline controversial City Ground post. A Steve Cooper choice of staff, with Evangelos Marinakis favouring Giovanni Vio, ex-Spurs & Fiorentina, but Cooper was given his man, in a plan that ultimately failed.

As an ex-Goalkeeper himself, there is no doubt that Nuno will have some impact on set-piece training, especially with the Goalkeeper union of Miguel, Sels & Turner – an area of expertise he can pass on, with pre-season a great opportunity to do so without the external pressures that come with the Premier League football season.

Organisation within the box, ensuring the surrounding area isn’t left with opposition free or available, is crucial. Set-pieces can be difficult to defend, but Forest made the job even more difficult last season – this year will be an important one for seeing the improvement. One aspect of the sides game that, if at least improved slightly, could stave off relegation again.

Finally, the last bullet point: Bravery. No side makes the Premier League without shear bravery, on and off the pitch. For some sides, they falter and burn, often ending with mediocrity for a long period after attempting promotion, or in worse cases relegation. Making that jump is huge, and you have to get it right – Forest did, they invested, and were brave; risk-taking is inevitable to any successful side. Therefore, when the “dream destination” of the top division is finally a reality, teams new to the league should take their chances – often the box isn’t open, chances don’t come as easily as they may have in other leagues, so bravery on the edge of the box is necessary; it’s one area, I feel, Forest could improve, and score more goals in the process.

Gibbs-White vs Manchester United, Aina vs Aston Villa, Danilo v Brentford, in the past Johnson v Leeds United – all examples, and there are more, of times when Forest needed a goal, and got one by being brave. Of course, a player acting on every fans cry of “SHOOT” when he gets in the opposition half isn’t what I’m advocating for, but on occasion, when the box is overloaded, have a shot, take that chance, because its evident the players available have the quality to do so – history proves that. Having players that will of course attempt to play a cross, or onto the feet of an on-running striker is the desired route for a goal – but undesirable measures call for brave solutions – if Forest want to score more, especially in games with a low-block to counter, bravery is needed. Would also be great to see the likes of Elanga, Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White etc all upping their goal tally as a result.

Again, it’s three bullet points I thought were the largest weaknesses – the analysts will have entire documents full of issues, but we will leave that for them to breakdown.

The upcoming matches, and Forest’s potential business

After a win against Millwall, albeit marred by a frustrating aforementioned injury to Elliot Anderson, Forest will soon exit their Spanish retreat, as they face Elche in the final game at the Pinatar arena, Murcia. While it is only a friendly, it’s another opportunity for Nuno to test new formations, use new players, and try something different ahead of a third successive Premier League campaign for Nottingham Forest. Young Zach Abbott is certainly a player to watch as part of said experimentation; tall & strong, and with the benefit of not needing to be registered in the 25-man squad, he could see first team game time this year.

Forest will then travel back to the UK to face Villarreal at the City Ground, before once again departing for the Mediterranean where they will face Olympiacos, the Europa Conference League champions, also owned by Evangelos Marinakis. Said game will end the pre-season, with Bournemouth being Forest’s first opponents of the 24/25 Premier League season just under two weeks later. A first home start to the Premier League for Nottingham Forest since their return.

Forest will certainly be looking to make additions before the pre-season is over, and if any are made, it will certainly be late into that time frame, if not slightly beyond it.

A couple of wingers, as well as a Striker, and potentially another Centre-Back are positions Forest are looking to continue to strengthen in. Winger depth is incredibly shallow, and with Wood & Awoniyi either aging, or suffering with proneness to injury, it emphasises the need for a new Striker to add more quality, more depth, or even potentially push Wood or Awoniyi out of the team.

Young Palmeiras winger/Striker, Riquelme, is a likely transfer for the Reds – a deal worth around £5m/£6m is being discussed, with reports suggesting the player is set to make a decision. Jaka Bijol was also cited as a target for the Reds this week by Italian Media, but the Reds face harsh competition from Inter Milan & Atletico Madrid in order to get a deal done.

Riquelme’s move is certainly one to watch, however any move could not happen as he would have to be 18 to move. His 18th, frustratingly, is in Mid-September, meaning he would have to join in the Winter Window, on January 1st. Despite this inconvenience, Forest would be smart to sign a player with his talent, strength & potential for the price of just £5m/£6m.

Still a busy few weeks of preparation on the pitch as well as off of it for Nottingham Forest, but early signs in pre-season are positive, and work is underway behind the scenes in the recruitment department to ensure Forest are ready to move up the table, and make the ambitions of the ownership, and indeed the success-hungry fans a reality.