Could Selling Mangala Change Reds Model?

Orel Mangala: Could his potential sale prove a “change in business model” for Nottingham Forest

This week, reports from Sky Germany via acclaimed transfers journalist Florian Plettenburg revealed that Nottingham Forest midfielder, Orel Mangala, is subject to interest from Napoli & Juventus, with Turkish giants Galatasaray the only club to make a formal offer to sign the Belgian enforcer.

Why would a move show that there is a “change in business model” from Nottingham Forest?

Firstly, in light of recent worries regarding FFP – for all Premier League clubs – the sale of players is a necessity for future spending to take place. For Nottingham Forest, one of the clubs priorities has been to become a club similar to Brighton in how they recruit, sell, and sustain as a footballing institution; selling academy product Brennan Johnson for £47.5m was likely the first step in this plan.

Since 2020, Brighton have made around £362m in revenue from sales, for which the cost of said players sold was around £60m. Just based on sales revenue/costs, that would acquaint to a profit of approximately £302m. Of course, wages/signing fee’s should be taken into account, but a £300m profit over three years on sales revenue is phenomenal business – with Amortisation also, great for cash flow. And a fun fact, Brighton paid just £4.2m before selling Moises Caicedo a few years later to Chelsea for £110m. If Forest were looking to replicate this model, while it won’t happen all at once, Paul Barber & Brighton have been incredibly successful using it thus far. A prime example of sustainability.

Selling Orel Mangala, in a way, shows one part of the Brighton plan: selling a player while the stock is high. The same report speaking of interest in the midfielder mentions that Mangala is open to the move – Forest have the opportunity to sell Mangala after a so far fantastic start to 23/24; value as high as it can be for the moment, concrete interest from big clubs, enough depth in Forest’s midfield to support a sale.

Sustainability if often hard to come by in the Premier League, unless a club has huge revenues, spending can often be scarce – one good example is that of Newcastle United. FFP doesn’t create a level playing field, but rather staves the “larger clubs” from breaking away into other leagues, such as the European Super League – hence why clubs are trying to recruit more shrewdly, and attempt to sell later on for a profit, but such a model takes strategy, and time. Strategy, easier said than done – time, limited. Anything can happen in the Premier League, no team is guaranteed points/survival in the top division – it’s harsh, and implementing sustainable practices is harder than it looks, despite Brighton’s success, much of which can be accredited to their incredible recruitment department, but even that is a product of strategy, and time spent to one day secure a sustainable & successful footballing model.

Should Forest sell Orel Mangala?

Perhaps the toughest question at the centre of the entire debate around Orel Mangala’s future is whether the club should actually sell him. A crucial starter for much of last season, and indeed this season before Nuno Espírito Santo’s arrival, Mangala has been superb for the Reds after a horrific start to life at the City Ground with injuries, since proving his worth, many times over, I’d argue.

Before I get onto the issues with selling the Belgian Pro, we should look at depth and positioning; Ibrahim Sangaré is Forest’s record transfer, with a fee of around £30m being the reason for his arrival at the City Ground, leaving PSV on deadline day. While his purchase does not necessarily correlate with selling Orel Mangala, there is a strong argument to suggest that, based on where Mangala has featured most this season, it has hindered Sangaré’s opportunities to play in the position that A) Suits him [Sangaré] most, and B) The club bought him in to play in that position – the Number 6, or defensive-midfield role. Mangala has featured 18 times this season, playing as the “Number 6” on 12 occasions, Ibrahim Sangaré on the other hand – accredited for his role as Defensive Midfielder in a successful PSV side – has played 11 times, with arguably 4/5 of those in his “natural”/intended position. Mangala was successful as the 6, but ultimately, Sangaré – I feel – should be given the opportunity to prove himself in the position he plays typically, while at the same time Mangala can achieve the move he reportedly seeks, and Forest can recover some of that fee they paid for Sangaré – helpful for FFP & Sustainability overall.

Then, in terms of depth, I’d say that Forest are adequately “stocked”. Danilo, Yates, Kouyaté, Aguilera, Dominguez & Gibbs-White are all available for Forest. Playing, now typically, a 4-2-3-1, in reality means that reliance on midfielders availability isn’t as stressed as previously, where three midfielders as well as Gibbs-White on the wing, was required – under Steve Cooper in the earlier stage of the 23/24 season. Less personnel, less worries about availability, and the aforementioned players getting more game time and progressing – Yates, Danilo & Dominguez most notably in recent times. Aguilera is yet to be tested, but is expected to progress over the next season or more. The only player I’d say that is completely unsellable/replaceable in that Forest midfield, and perhaps the entire team, is Morgan Gibbs-White. Orel Mangala, as much as it would be a shame to lose a player of his calibre, is certainly not irreplaceable.

On the flip side, Forest are losing a crucial “cog” in the machine. Mangala’s superb ball retention/recovery is a key attribute tied to him, and one that has been/continues to be valuable for Nottingham Forest. His ability to retain possession is crucial, his awareness of the game the same, perhaps one of his finest moments being the goal against Manchester City. While he didn’t score it, or assist it, he started the build-up; Forest’s defence always had a man available in Mangala, and before you knew it, the ball was on the wing, and next thing in the net. An intelligent footballer with an eye for detail & precision, while still progressing in his development as a player – an individual with a “high ceiling” in regards to potential, which of course makes it a shame to lose.

While others in the midfield are progressing, and will undeniably be of standard to play regular Premier League football, I question whether they are comparable in quality to that of Orel Mangala, particularly with the ball/possession retention & recovery.

With all this being said, my approach would always be this: If a player is keen to depart, they should be allowed the opportunity, providing the financial compensation is sufficient for their current employers – this applies for all jobs, bare in mind football. If Forest can make a good profit on the cost they incurred as a result of bringing the Belgian to the club, then selling may be a necessary step in that previously mentioned plan of becoming a more sustainable, Brighton-inspired, football club.

What next?

Well, nobody really knows. Football is uncertain, and that is both the beauty and the downfall of investing in it. That being said, you can expect more updates on this over the coming days/weeks before the end of the window – as mentioned, Napoli, Juventus & Galatasaray all have real interest, Galatasaray have submitted an offer, with the value unknown as of current.

Should a sale be entertained, I feel that a fee of £25m-£30m would be the best outcome for Forest, and would certainly aid Forest’s finances, and provide leverage for use in the January/upcoming transfer windows.

More to follow.